Carbon-Free Europe Releases New Report Showing Clean Energy Infrastructure Needed Across Member States to Reach Net Zero
BRUSSELS—A new report from Carbon-Free Europe (CFE) and Evolved Energy Research highlights what European carbon neutrality policy and clean energy deployment look like on the ground for Member States. CFE’s Annual Decarbonisation Perspective (ADP) uses cutting-edge energy systems models to evaluate Europe’s progress toward net zero and the impact of different strategies on Europe’s competitiveness in the global economy.
This year’s study includes energy infrastructure maps for the first time, offering detailed visualisations of the energy infrastructure needed to meet each Member State’s deployment targets. Coupled with additional modelling, these maps show the risk of overly prescriptive policies to decarbonize specific sectors and technologies. Our analysis finds that, beyond 2030, a more flexible policy framework is necessary for countries to leverage their domestic clean energy resources and industries to cost-effectively reach net zero.
“Europe’s race to net zero will impact each Member State differently, with diverse consequences for land use, economic opportunity, energy security, and competitiveness,” said Lindsey Walter, co-founder of Carbon-Free Europe. “This year’s ADP puts those impacts into perspective, showing what Europe’s future could look like under different decarbonization scenarios. Our analysis makes clear there cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach to decarbonization. To meet climate goals while protecting Europe’s economy, future net zero policy must become more flexible and less prescriptive.”
“As policymakers begin negotiating the EU’s 2040 Climate Target in the new legislative mandate, they can use this analysis to design a flexible policy framework for Member States to implement the requirements of the European Green Deal, while maintaining domestic industrial competitiveness and ensuring long-term economic opportunity for citizens. It’s an essential resource for policymakers during a crucial and decisive period for the European Union’s climate efforts,” said Kelsey Paulding, EU Director of Carbon-Free Europe.
“Our analysis shows the critical importance of understanding how Europe meets its net-zero targets moving forward—not just for the health of our climate but for Europe’s ongoing prosperity and economic growth,” said Ben Haley, cofounder of Evolved Energy. “ Technology- and sector-specific targets can imply a level of certainty that isn’t appropriate. Hopefully, our analysis can inform the 2040 Mandate as it takes shape and demonstrate the utility of greater flexibility for every Member State.”
Key takeaways from the 2024 Annual Decarbonisation Perspective include:
Technology- and Sector-Specific Targets Aren’t Perfect: These targets are motivating in terms of market transformation but they can have negative impacts by setting unrealistic goals that are discouraging when not met or setting goals that don’t reflect the challenges on the ground, like obstacles to siting and permitting challenges. These targets can also limit Member States’ ability to craft net zero strategies that match their national preferences.
Most Efficient Transition Requires Matching Deployment and Regional Constraints—That’s Not Always the Case: The ability to cost-effectively decarbonize is not only a matter of resource availability (i.e. high-quality renewables, biomass, etc.) but also access to these resources. That access can be restricted by an inability to build the appropriate network infrastructure (transmission lines, pipelines, etc.) or by societal preference. Having an understanding of the contours of that ultimate resource availability is hugely impactful and has been abstracted from many of the conversations.
Reducing Demand Doesn’t Change the Necessary Energy Technology Mix: A strategy reliant on low energy demand (21% less final energy in 2050 compared to the Core Scenario) would require deindustrialization in addition to standard efforts around energy efficiency and electrification. While reducing demand reduces the scale of the necessary clean energy infrastructure, this strategy doesn't change the reality of needing to build a new, diverse clean energy system to replace the current fossil one.
To Cut Household Costs, Electrification is Imperative: Cost-effectively reducing emissions from buildings and passenger vehicles requires electrification. The longer we wait, the further decarbonization in those sectors recedes into the future and the more exposed consumers will be to high-cost zero-carbon fuels.
UK, France, and Italy Face Major Land Use Decisions Under Current Targets: The clean electricity portfolios in each country can differ dramatically with different assumptions about the availability of land for renewable production (onshore wind and solar). In the absence of that production, these countries will need to turn to alternatives like floating offshore wind and nuclear to meet their ultimate decarbonization goals. This reality should be reflected in discussions about resource preferences currently under debate in these countries.
To read this year’s report, please visit our website or click here.